Rockets to lose

final 2 games

GEOFFREY C. ARNOLD

Winding down the final days of the regular season, the Trail Blazers still harbor a glimmer of hope of winning the Northwest Division title and finishing as high as the No. 2 playoff seed in the Western Conference.

A series of unlikely events must occur for the Blazers to achieve those goals. They must win their final two games to have a chance of capturing the second spot behind the Los Angeles Lakers.

However, after defeating the Spurs, Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers in the past three games, the Blazers feel as if anything is possible.

"These two wins were huge for us and for our confidence," guard Brandon Roy said of beating the Clippers on Saturday night after an emotional win over the Lakers on Friday. "We beat the Spurs, and we feel good about how we match up with the Lakers. This says a lot about our team. If we play in the playoffs like we played (Friday), I like our chances against anybody."

Even if the Blazers win their final two games (against Oklahoma City and Denver at home), they will need Denver, Houston and San Antonio to each lose their final two games to capture the second seed.

The Blazers' hopes rest on Denver losing at home tonight against lowly Sacramento. Considering the way Denver is playing (13-2 in last 15 games, 32-8 record at home and defeating the Kings by 19 and 33 points), an upset by the Kings seems unlikely. But the Kings did defeat the Nuggets 114-106 in Sacramento on March 8.

If the Nuggets win tonight, the race for second is over for the Blazers. Then the Blazers will turn their collective eyes to the third seed. Things get more complicated because they're in a tight race with Houston and San Antonio. If those teams finish in a three-way tie, the Blazers will fall to the fifth seed.

If the Blazers and Houston finish with identical records, the Rockets win the tiebreaker based on winning the season series against Portland. So the Blazers will be rooting for New Orleans to win at Houston tonight and for the Rockets to lose at Dallas in their regular-season finale Wednesday.

"We have to make sure we continue to realize what got us here," Houston forward Ron Artest told the Houston Chronicle. "We have to understand that the reason we are here is (because of) our defense and playing together."

The Hornets have defeated Houston once this season, but they lost their last game against Houston, 95-84, in New Orleans on March 16. And the Rockets have won both of their home games against Dallas, but lost 96-86 at Dallas on Nov. 16. The Hornets want to maintain their current position of sixth in the conference.

"Obviously, you want to be seeded as high as possible, but it's all about us playing well," New Orleans point guard Chris Paul told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "Whatever seed we get, I think we'll be fine."

Perhaps the most likely scenario for the Blazers is for injury-hobbled San Antonio to falter and the Blazers to take the fourth seed. The Blazers would win the tiebreaker with the Spurs after winning the season series.

The Spurs, without guard Manu Ginobili (ankle) for the remainder of the season and with forward Tim Duncan nursing a sore right knee, seem vulnerable, particularly after struggling to win at Sacramento on Sunday night. The Spurs play at Golden State tonight and finish the regular season with a home game against New Orleans on Wednesday.

Any combination of a Portland win and a San Antonio loss will secure at least the fourth seed for the Blazers. If the Blazers win tonight against the Thunder and the Spurs lose to the Warriors, the Blazers will capture the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Geoffrey C. Arnold: 503-221-8556;

geoffreyarnold@news.

oregonian.com